The Decline of Public Education

Why enrollment is down and what must be done to change course.

Photo by Feliphe Schiarolli on Unsplash

Right at the top I need to set the background for this article. I am a big supporter of public education. My parents were lifelong educators in Texas public schools, my wife and I both graduated from public high schools, and all six of my kids have attended local schools in Round Rock ISD. I am not writing as a distant critic with little awareness or investment in the public education system. I love and support our public school administrators and teachers, who have some of the hardest jobs in our current cultural climate. I am writing as an involved parent and community leader who is concerned with the state of public education in our region, state, and nation.

Let’s start with the facts. Local school districts are losing market share in the increasingly competitive marketplace of modern education. The year I graduated from high school (1997), the Texas legislature passed a law establishing the apparatus by which charter schools could access public funds. Since that time, public charter school enrollment has increased from 0.1% of students in 1997 to 7.3% of students in 2023. At the same time, statewide enrollment in private schools has increased to 10.7% of school-aged children. In addition, more families are choosing homeschooling (including online education). Accurate homeschooling numbers are hard to find, but the best estimates I’ve seen say 8.6% of Texas students are homeschooled. In our local district, the breakdown of the 62,803 school-aged kids looks like this:

• Local school district: 73.4% (46,097 students)

• Public charter schools: 7.3% (4,585 students)

• Private schools: 10.7% (6,720 students)

• Homeschooling: 8.6% (5,401 students)

RRISD recently published demographic data showing the decline in their “capture rate” since 2020:

What does this chart show? Our local school district educates 73.4% of the total school-age population in their boundaries, a 2.5% decrease since 2020. In raw numbers, the district population shrunk by 800 students while RRISD enrollment shrunk by 2200 students. In other words, the local district is shrinking faster than the local population. I’m not the only one to notice this local (and national) trend. Community Impact Newspaper ran a local story about the drop in RRISD local enrollment (and best-case projections by their demographer). The following chart stands out, revealing the historical enrollment of RRISD…

Numerically, our local district peaked in 2019-2020 at 50,953 students, and since then has lost roughly 10% of its student body (to 46,126 in 2023). This trend is not unique to Round Rock ISD. Another large, local suburban district has experienced the same dynamic. Community Impact recently reported that Leander ISD (LISD) saw over 3,000 students transfer out of their district this school year to other education options. LISD’s enrollment was 42,415 in 2022-2023, so losing 3,000 students in one year is a significant decline.

The data clearly reveals that local school districts in our region are losing students to other educational options. The question is why. Some will say that districts have struggled to recover from Covid. But that explanation is unsatisfactory. Local schools in our region no longer have restrictive Covid policies in place. Why are parents in 2024 choosing to remove their kids from local school districts and enroll them somewhere else?

Before I give you my proposed answers, let me tell you why I think we need to ask and answer this question correctly. Public schools in Texas educate over 5.5 million students across the state. Funding for public schools decreases as parents choose other options, which impacts local communities, other students, and families. If these numerical declines continue, we are going to see the decimation of public education in Texas (which I believe would be a net negative for many reasons). I am not highlighting these declines in order to rejoice over them, but to evaluate them and propose solutions to stop them. I want administrators and district leaders to understand what motivates parents who remove their kids from public education and figure out solutions to these problems.

That being said, here are the top five reasons I think public school districts are in decline and how they can start to recover…

1. Public schools have too often moved from ideological neutrality to ethical instruction. In America, we all live in pluralistic communities with many different religious and non-religious citizens. Public education in an ideologically diverse community requires ideological neutrality. It requires educators to leave moral formation to parents. This is incredibly difficult because every public school teacher has their own moral convictions and national guidelines often push one ideological framework over another. Local educators must remember that their district includes Christian, Mormon, Muslim, Jewish, Hindu, secular, and atheist parents. Every parent teaches their children a moral worldview based on their personal convictions. If parents feel like public school teachers contradict what they are teaching at home, they will withdraw their children and choose a different option for their education. As Aaron Renn has eloquently articulated, evangelical Christians increasingly understand that they live in a “negative world” where their beliefs are seen as bigoted and hateful. In light of this, parents will be quick to find education alternatives that will support (or at least not contradict) what they are teaching at home. To be very specific, public educators must understand that post-modern critical theory and contemporary sexual ethics are religious systems with their own ethical frameworks. Many parents do not support the oppressor/oppressed framework of critical theory. Many parents reject the contemporary view of gender as grounded in internal feelings rather than biological reality. Some parents teach their children that God designed sexual activity to be enjoyed only in a covenant union between one man and one woman. Most parents have strong political views that they pass along to their kids. If public educators teach students something different at school, parents will look for other education options.

   Proposed solution: to solve this issue, educators must maintain neutrality in areas where parents within the community disagree with one another. And public school officials must commit to parents not to contradict at school what they are teaching at home. This neutral position must be communicated to teachers and parents so that everyone knows how the school district handles controversial topics.

2. Public schools have more competition and parents are more aware of their options. When I was growing up, there were two primary options: public school or private school. If you didn’t have the money for private school, you went to public school. That reality has changed. As we have already observed, public charter schools have exploded in popularity, especially in large population centers. Parents are bombarded with ads for local charter schools, promoting their unique education philosophy (classical, Montossori, small classes, uniforms, phone-free) or their subject-matter expertise (classics, STEM, college-prep). In addition to niche charter schools, online education options have increased. Many private schools now put their curriculum and instruction online, and free public options have increased. Parents can choose to homeschool their children, maximizing their calendar, while also accessing quality online instructions and education. Public schools (like churches) must adjust to the reality that educational content is ubiquitous. Streaming services provide endless documentaries. YouTube opens access to the best teachers around the nation. Online platforms offer quality content and instruction. Schools can complain about this dynamic, but content delivery options will only increase in the years ahead. This competitive marketplace means that local school districts cannot assume that the kids in their area are going to enroll in their programs. They have to show parents why their approach is better and their strategy more beneficial for students.

   Proposed solution: rather than tearing down alternative education models, public schools need to improve their product and articulate what they do well. Local districts are wrongly going in the direction of offering more options, thinking that if they can be all things to all people, they will attract more students. I believe this is the wrong approach. I would recommend that public schools specialize and get really good at doing fewer things. Public schools must provide something that is hard to find in other alternatives, and they have to tell parents what they do. I know this seems odd (local districts advertising their services), but this is what will be required in the next decade. Parents have choices, and if the Texas legislature approves school vouchers, their options will only increase. In this new world, public educators must focus on their core competencies and show parents what they do better than anyone else.

   Three more observations below…